Minimal wind losses expected with remote landfall location, high possibility of inland flooding
Hurricane Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida, which is located in Florida’s Big Bend region on Monday, August 5 at 7 a.m. local time (11 a.m. UTC).
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Debby had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (130 km/h) with a minimum central pressure of 979 millibars (mb), making this a Category 1 tropical cyclone.
A weather station near Steinhatchee reported sustained winds of 61 mph and gusts of 90 mph. A station to the south in Cedar Key, Florida reported a maximum gust of 67 mph. In the state capital of Tallahassee, weather stations recorded wind gusts of only 40 mph.
Florida’s Big Bend region is located along the west coast of the state and is sparsely populated with no major centers of development. It is home to a number of wildlife refuges and management areas.
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This is a very similar area to that which Hurricane Idalia impacted in 2023.
According to the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR)[1], Hurricane Idalia caused less than $400,000 of insured losses in the state. Idalia was a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph at landfall.
The lower concentration of homes, businesses, industrial property, and agricultural lands should minimize potential insured wind losses from Hurricane Debby.
The NHC expects Hurricane Debby to weaken into a tropical storm and continue east-northeast towards southern South Carolina where it will enter the Atlantic Ocean (Figure 1). The system will move slowly and meander off the coast, potentially making a second landfall.
The slow movement and loop pattern just offshore of the U.S. East Coast could lead to extended periods of rainfall in South Carolina.
Heavy Rain Expected Across the Southeastern U.S.
Hurricane Debby spent relatively little time over the Gulf of Mexico, where there are warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), minimizing the potential for damaging winds to develop.
The storm’s strongest winds only affected the areas closest to landfall, which are sparsely populated. However, forecasts indicate that Hurricane Debby will drop up to 15 inches of rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. over the next three days (Figure 2).
There is a high risk (70% chance) of flash flooding across the southeastern U.S. from the Big Bend region of Florida northeast to southern North Carolina. Residents and those with interests in cities, such as Jacksonville, Savannah, and Charleston, should be aware of potential flash and riverine flooding.
CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ will continue to monitor Hurricane Debby and its impact in the southeastern U.S. Updates may be provided if additional information becomes available.
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Contact: Please email [email protected] with questions about Hurricane Debby or any CoreLogic event response notifications. Please visit www.hazardhq.com for updates and information on catastrophes across the globe.
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[1] Florida OIR incurred loss estimate includes damage to residential and commercial property, losses to the private flood market, business interruption, and other lines of business.
