CoreLogic estimates $1 – $1.5B insurable losses for Windward Islands; less than $1B in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico; between $2.5B – $3.5B insured in Texas
Read Updates on Hurricane Beryl
“To see a major tropical cyclone east of the Caribbean in late June is almost unheard of. A Category 5 hurricane in early July has never been recorded.”
CoreLogic’s Chief Scientist Dr. Howard Botts
Update: July 11, 2024
CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ updated its industry insured wind losses in Texas to between $2.5 and $3.5 billion.
The Hazard HQ Command Central team recreated the Hurricane Beryl wind footprint using available wind observation data. The updated loss estimate was derived using the custom footprint.
The estimated losses include damage to residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural properties, including damage to contents and business interruption. The estimate includes demand surge.
The updated estimate assumes a typical residential policy deductible of 2%. Homeowners in Texas have options for deductibles ranging from 1% to 5%. Uncertainty in the chosen deductible of the individual policyholder can strongly influence the insured loss estimate. In this instance, a shift towards the purchase of a higher deductible amount could significantly reduce the losses paid by insurers.
Beryl: A Record-Breaking Storm to Start the 2024 Hurricane Season
Hurricane Beryl is a unique storm. In addition to setting several meteorological records during its lifetime, Hurricane Beryl defied expectations after landfall in Texas.
Hurricane Beryl was a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph when it made landfall in Texas over Matagorda County, approximately 90 miles from Houston. The system then turned north then northeast towards Houston. However, even after several hours over land, weather stations in Houston recorded 90 mph wind gusts from Hurricane Beryl.
This sort of phenomenon is typical of stronger hurricanes (e.g., Category 2 or greater) but less so for a system like Beryl. Winds in excess of 90 mph are capable of damage to modern construction.
Future Hurricane Beryl Updates
CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central will continue to monitor Hurricane Beryl. Future updates to insured losses and damage may be made available if additional data becomes available.
Update: July 9, 2024
Hurricane Beryl, the second named storm of the 2024 season, made its final landfall over coastal Texas. The storm traveled over 4,000 miles since the National Hurricane Center (NHC) named it as a tropical storm in the central Atlantic Ocean.
According to the NHC, Hurricane Beryl made landfall over Matagorda, Texas at 4 a.m. (9 a.m. UTC) as a Category 1 cyclone with maximum sustained wind speeds of 80 mph and a minimum central pressure of 979 millibars (mb). After landfall, Hurricane Beryl turned north and north-northeast while maintaining hurricane strength hours after landfall (Figure 1). Weather stations across the Houston area recorded hurricane-force wind gusts.
This is the third landfall Hurricane Beryl has made over its lifetime. The first landfall was as a devastating Category 4 hurricane over Grenada, and the second landfall came as a Category 2 storm over the Yucatan Peninsula. Between those landfalls, Hurricane Beryl strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane, the earliest in recorded history.
CoreLogic Estimates Hurricane Wind and Storm Surge Loss in Texas
CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ estimates that total insured wind and storm surge losses in Texas will be between $700 million and $1.5 billion. This is an initial estimate that may be updated when more data becomes available.
The estimated losses include damage to residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural properties, including damage to contents and business interruption. The estimate includes demand surge. The losses do not include damage to offshore exposure.
The estimated flood losses do not include losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).
Risk Quantification and Engineering® (RQE) model users can download proxy events from the CoreLogic North Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Model and Latin America Hurricane Model on the Client Resource Center (CRC).
Hurricane Beryl’s Industry Insurance Impact Relies Heavily on Exact Landfall Location
Insured losses could have mounted if the Category 1 hurricane made landfall over a densely populated Texas city like Corpus Christi or Galveston. On the other hand, a landfall over a relatively sparsely populated area like Matagorda Bay means the strongest winds will impact fewer properties resulting in a more manageable industry insured loss total.
“Hurricanes Idalia and Ian in 2023 and 2022 are good examples of why landfall location matters,” said Jon Schneyer, CoreLogic’s Director of Catastrophe Response.
“Idalia, despite being a major hurricane at landfall, crossed the Florida coastline in the Big Bend region, a much less densely populated part of Florida. On the other hand, Hurricane Ian made landfall in southwest Florida over Cayo Costa near Fort Meyers. True, Ian was a stronger hurricane, but the difference in the estimated industry insured losses was large,” continued Schneyer. “Hurricane Ian caused tens of billions of dollars on insured losses, while Idalia caused just a couple billion, if even. Landfall location matters.”
Exploring Wind Speed and Storm Surge
Despite incredibly warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Beryl was able to restrengthen to a Category 1 hurricane between exiting the Yucatan Peninsula and making landfall in U.S. This means that hurricane-force maximum sustained winds and gusts were relatively low compared to its previous landfalls in the Caribbean and Mexico, which reduced the potential for wind damage. The NHC reported that hurricane-force winds extended approximately 45 miles from the center, affecting Texas cities such as Freeport and Lake Jackson.
After Hurricane Beryl made landfall nearly 90 miles from Houston, it turned north then northeast and was able to maintain hurricane-status longer than expected.
According to the NHC, weather stations recorded hurricane-force gusts in western Houston (Figure 2). Damage to older, more-vulnerable structures, especially roofs, is possible. The longevity of hurricane-force wind gusts seen after Beryl made landfall is something that would have been expected from a Category 2 hurricane.
However, Texas does not rank high among hurricane-prone states in terms of building code adoption or enforcement.
While the state adopted the 2000 International Residential Code (IRC), it does not require mandatory adoption and enforcement. While most incorporated cities have adopted either the 2000 IRC or a more modern code, there does exist a larger building code gap in unincorporated areas. According to the Rating the States: 2024 Edition report from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), Texas ranks 16 (out of 18 states) in terms of building code adoption, enforcement, or certification and education of building officials.
The areas surrounding Matagorda Bay and close to where Beryl made landfall are examples of smaller, unincorporated towns that may not have adopted modern building code standards. This could increase the risk for wind damage.
Beryl brought life- and property-threatening storm surge flooding to coastal areas of Texas in addition to hurricane-force winds. The most severe storm surge flooding is most likely to occur on the northern and eastern edges of Hurricane Beryl where onshore winds pushed water onto land in areas of Texas like Freeport, Jamaica Beach, and Galveston.
“Storm surge flooding along the Gulf Coast tends to be worse than if a hurricane makes landfall along the East Coast, due to the relatively shallow nature of the topography beneath the Gulf’s water,” said Schneyer. “Because of that, CoreLogic estimated that there are between 1,500 and 3,500 homes in the area of Bay City, Texas at risk to storm surge flooding. Just up the coast in Brazoria County, there are an additional 3,500 to 7,500 homes at risk to storm surge flooding. The residents of coastal Texas are no strangers to hurricanes and the flooding potential, so many of these homes are elevated to mitigate any potential flood damage.”
Reports from Texas indicate flooding of low-lying areas and some damage to homes and vehicles. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tidal gauges in Port O’Conner, Galveston, and Morgans Point, at the mouth of the Buffalo Bayou and San Jacinto River, reported observed water levels at 3.7 feet, 3.2 feet, and 5.5 feet above Mean High High Water (MHHW), respectively. The worst flooding occurred where high tide coincided with peak storm surge activity.
Future Hurricane Beryl Updates
CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ will continue to monitor Hurricane Beryl. An updated insured loss estimate may be provided when more quality data becomes available.
Update: July 5, 2024
Hurricane Beryl continues to top Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclones records. The storm grew in intensity after its initial landfall over Carriacou Island of Grenada, reaching Category 5 status with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph at its peak, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Hurricane Beryl is the earliest Category 5 storm to form in recorded history.
After its direct landfall over the Windward Islands, Hurricane Beryl advanced toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Starting Wednesday, July 3 at 2 p.m. local time (7 p.m. UTC) Hurricane Beryl passed over southeastern Jamaica, but early reports indicate that it spared Kingston from the worst of the winds.
On the morning of Friday, July 5, Hurricane Beryl officially made landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula northeast of Tulum at 6:05 a.m. local time (11:05 a.m. UTC) as a strong Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph and minimum central pressure of 975 millibars (mb), according to the NHC.
CoreLogic Estimates Hurricane Wind Losses in Jamaica, Cayman Islands, and Mexico
CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ estimates that total insurable losses across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands will be between $400 million and $700 million. Estimated insurable losses in Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula are also less than $1 billion.
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The estimated losses include wind-only damage to residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural properties, including damage to contents and business interruption. Insurable losses account for damage to all modeled exposure types prior to the application of any insurance terms (such as deductibles or limits). It does not include losses to any regional insurance programs.
Hurricane Beryl passed just south of Jamaica. The most extreme winds in the eye wall of the storm did not appear to impact Kingston, where the population is the densest. A weather station at Kington’s Norman Manley International Airport recorded a maximum wind gust of 81 mph with lower sustained winds. The southern coast of Jamaica west of Kingston saw the strongest sustained winds as the storm continued west-northwest; however these areas are more sparsely populated.
“While it’s unfortunate that a part of Jamaica experienced the devastating winds of Hurricane Beryl, it is lucky the storm stayed just far enough south of Kingston and merely brushed against Jamaica, its strong winds avoiding the most populated areas,” said Jon Schneyer, CoreLogic’s director of catastrophe response. “A more northward shift could have caused a stronger storm surge and wind event in the more developed areas of Kingston, like what happened in 1988 with Hurricane Gilbert.”
The Cayman Islands remained outside of Hurricane Beryl’s strongest winds. A weather station at the Owen Robers International Airport on Grand Cayman Island recorded a wind gust of 54 mph with sustained winds less than that.
Initial information from the NHC indicate hurricane force winds on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. A weather station at Xcaret Park in Cancun recorded a maximum wind gust of 81 mph and sustained winds of 59 mph. Another separate weather station at Xel-Há Park between Playa Del Carmen and Tulum recorded a minimum central pressure of 980.9 mb.
Risk Quantification and Engineering® (RQE) model users can download proxy events from the CoreLogic North Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Model and Mexico Hurricane Model on the Client Resource Center (CRC).
Another Day, Another New Record Set
Beryl continued to set new meteorological records, due in part to environmental conditions in and above the Atlantic Ocean conducive to tropical cyclones. Sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea have fueled Beryl’s persistent intensification.
“This is the sort of behavior we would expect to see in late August or early September during the peak of hurricane season” said CoreLogic’s Chief Scientist Dr. Howard Botts. “To see a major tropical cyclone east of the Caribbean in late June is almost unheard of. A Category 5 hurricane in early July has never been recorded,” continued Botts. “Is this a new normal? Possibly, and it shows that pre-season outlooks are likely correct, and this will be an incredibly active hurricane season.”
Hurricane Beryl is the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic Ocean. The previous record holder was Hurricane Emily, which strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane on July 17, 2005. At 165 mph, Beryl also became the strongest hurricane ever observed in July (again topping Hurricane Emily).
Hurricanes are heat engines. They are fueled by heat in the oceans, both at the surface and at depth, to strengthen. When Hurricane Beryl strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane east of the Caribbean, the average North Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature was 23.5 C (74.3 F), which on average usually does not occur until the end of July (Figure 1).
Future Hurricane Beryl Updates
Hurricane Beryl continues to weaken as it passes over the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC forecast indicates that Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm once it enters the western Caribbean Sea but intensify as it moves northwest toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas.
Hurricane-force winds in excess of 74 mph are possible in coastal regions like Port Isabel and South Padre Island in southern Texas. If Hurricane Beryl follows a more northerly track, then the areas around Corpus Christi are at risk of hurricane winds as well. Storm surge and rainfall-induced flooding are possible across southern Texas.
CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ will continue to monitor Hurricane Beryl. Updates will be provided after the storm makes landfall in northeastern Mexico or southern Texas as week as if additional data becomes available.
Beryl Announcement: July 1, 2024
Hurricane Beryl — the second named storm and first hurricane of the 2024 season — made landfall over Carriacou Island of Grenada at 11:10 a.m. local time (3:10 p.m. UTC) on Monday, July 1. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) estimated maximum sustained wind speeds of 150 mph and a minimum central pressure of 950 millibars.
The formation of a major hurricane (i.e. Category 3 or stronger) east of the Caribbean Sea this early in hurricane season is unprecedented.
Estimated: Hurricane Wind Losses in the Windward Islands
CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ estimates that total insurable losses across in Grenada; Barbados; St. Vincent and the Grenadines; Trinadad and Tobago; and St. Lucia could be between $1 and $1.5 billion.
Damage in Grenada is driving the majority of the losses, and weather stations on this island recorded the highest wind speeds from this storm.
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The estimated losses include wind-only damage to residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural properties, including damage to contents and business interruption. Insurable losses account for damage to all modeled exposure types prior to the application of any insurance terms (e.g., deductibles or limits). It does not include losses to any regional insurance pools
Risk Quantification and Engineering® (RQE) model users can download proxy events from the CoreLogic North Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Model on the Client Resource Center (CRC).
About Hurricane Beryl: An Unprecedented, Early-Season Hurricane
Hurricane Beryl is quickly moving west-northwest. While the storm strengthened rapidly over the Main Development Region (MDR) in the Atlantic Ocean, it began to weaken overnight prior to landfall when the hurricane underwent an eye wall replacement cycle. When an eye wall replacement cycle occurs, wind speeds decrease but the storm grows in size, exposing more areas to hurricane-force winds. However, low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures created optimal conditions for Hurricane Beryl to strengthen to a Category 4 storm again before landfall. At the time of landfall, hurricane-force winds extended approximately 40 miles from the center. Tropical storm-force winds extended outward 125 miles.
Putting Beryl in Historical Perspective
In 2004, Hurricane Ivan blew through the Windward Islands as a Category 3 storm. Hurricane Ivan passed just south of Grenada before heading into the Caribbean Sea. The devastation in Grenada after Hurricane Ivan was much worse than what has likely occurred after Hurricane Beryl this week.
Hurricane Ivan passed just south of main island of Grenada (Figure 2) meaning the southern edge of the island saw the strongest winds, which are typically found on the northeastern side of a hurricane. In comparison, Hurricane Beryl passed north of the main island of Grenada, so the smaller islands to the north, including those of St. Vincent and The Grenadines, were hit the hardest.
According to the NHC, Hurricane Ivan caused extensive damage to homes, buildings, and other structures in Grenada and Barbados, as well as St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands. More than 14,000 homes were damaged or destroyed in Grenada. In Barbados, Hurricane Ivan completely destroyed 176 homes. The Caribbean Development Bank estimated that Hurricane Ivan caused approximately $850 million of damage across Grenada, St. Vincent, The Grenadines, and St. Lucia (in 2011 dollars).
What Makes Hurricane Beryl Unique?
Before the NHC named Hurricane Beryl, the storm was a disturbance in the MDR east of the Caribbean Sea. The MDR extends from the eastern edge of the Caribbean towards coastal West Africa and is an area where some of history’s most devastating hurricanes have formed. However, these infamous storms typically form later in the season, during August, September, or October, when wind shear decreases, and ocean temperatures are high enough to sustain hurricanes.
It is very rare for hurricane-friendly conditions to appear in the MDR in late June or early July.
On Saturday, June 28, Beryl strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained wind speeds of just above 74 mph. Within about 24 hours, Hurricane Beryl rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane prior to impact in the Windward Islands.
Until this season, the earliest Atlantic Ocean Category 4 hurricane in recorded history was Hurricane Dennis in July of 2005. The earliest there has been a major hurricane in the MDR east of the Caribbean was August of 1899.
Future Hurricane Beryl Updates
Hurricane Beryl is not done. According to the NHC, the system will continue moving west toward Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. Beryl is expected to weaken in the Caribbean as wind shear increases, but it could still be a potent tropical cyclone.
CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central will continue to monitor Hurricane Beryl. Updates will be provided if Hurricane Beryl makes another landfall or if additional data becomes available.
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