Strict and widely enforced building codes should prevent another Hurricane Fabian; insurable losses expected to be minor
Read Updates on Hurricane Ernesto
Update: August 19, 2024
Hurricane Ernesto, the fifth named storm of the 2024 hurricane season, made landfall over the 21-square-mile island of Bermuda at 4:30 a.m. local time (8:30 a.m. UTC) on Saturday, Aug. 17.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Ernesto was a Category 1 tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (137 km/h) and similar gusts. A weather station at the L.F. Wade International Airport on St. George Island recorded a wind gust of 84 mph (135 km/h) as they eyewall of the storm passed over the island.
CoreLogic estimates insurable losses across Bermuda to be minimal, equivalent to less than 1% of the island’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
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Despite a direct landfall over the small island, losses should be minimal due to well-designed buildings adept at withstanding extraordinarily strong hurricane winds — much stronger than any reported gusts from Hurricane Ernesto. Reports from the island show little property damage. Some residents lost power during the storm’s landfall, but crews restored services to many by Monday, Aug. 19.
In addition to wind, Hurricane Ernesto brought storm surge and heavy rainfall to the island of Bermuda, elevating the risk of coastal and inland flooding. Tidal gauges around St. George Island recorded peak surge tides of 1 to 2 feet above Mean High High Water, enough to inundate low-lying coastal areas. The Bermuda Weather Service reported that 5.4 inches of rain fell on Aug. 16.
Ernesto Announcement: August 16, 2024
On Friday, Aug. 16 at 11:00 a.m. local time (12:00 UTC), Ernesto was in the Atlantic Ocean, 215 miles (345 km) away from Bermuda, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Advisory #20. Current maximum sustained wind speeds are 100 mph (155 km/h), making Ernesto a Category 2 hurricane (Figure 1).
Hurricane Ernesto is moving to the northeast towards Bermuda and is expected to slow down before landfall on Saturday morning local time. Weakening is possible before landfall, but it is quite a large storm at this point with hurricane-force winds extending outward 75 miles (120 km) from the center.
The potential wind damage is dependent on whether Hurricane Ernesto passes to the west or east of Bermuda. The strongest winds in a hurricane are located on the right side, so if Ernesto passes to the west of Bermuda, the impact could be more significant than if it passed to the east.
Storm surge could flood low-lying areas of coastal Bermuda. Coastal regions should brace for powerful and destructive waves. In addition, the NHC forecasts six to 12 inches of rain to fall across the island from Hurricane Ernesto, with isolated spots potentially seeing up to 15 inches. Heavy rain can cause flash flooding.
Lessons Learned From Fabian Will Matter
Research by the Bermuda Weather Service indicates that damaging storms have struck the island every six to seven years since 1609. Bermuda’s hurricane season runs from May through November, during which the island typically experiences one storm passing within 180 nautical miles of the island annually. The most significant hurricane that has impacted Bermuda in recent history was Hurricane Fabian in September 2003. This Category 3 (Figure 2) event was the most damaging hurricane to make landfall on the island since 1926 and caused $300 million in damages at that time.
Damage surveys after Hurricane Fabian noted that the predominant building style in Bermuda, such as limestone and concrete block buildings, successfully withstood wind damage. However, the hurricane winds did damage the more traditional Bermuda-style limestone slate roofs, especially on the windward side of the building where winds pushed up on the roof separating it from the rest of the building.
Given Bermuda’s history with tropical cyclones and the fact that it is a reinsurance industry hub, building codes are among the strictest in the world. The most recent Bermuda building code, released in 2014, requires buildings to withstand wind speeds of 150 mph, much stronger than the forecasted winds of Hurricane Ernesto.
Risk Quantification and Engineering (RQE®) and Navigate™ model users can download hazard-based proxy events from the Client Resource Center (CRC).
The CoreLogic® Hazard HQ Command Central™ team will monitor Hurricane Ernesto and its impacts in Bermuda over the weekend. Additional analysis of the impacts in Bermuda will be provided on Monday, Aug. 19.
CONTACT: Please email [email protected] with questions regarding Hurricane Ernesto or any CoreLogic event response notifications. Visit www.hazardhq.com for updates and information on catastrophes across the globe.
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