Helene will be the season’s eighth named storm and potentially fourth U.S. landfall; CoreLogic estimated 25,000 homes at risk of storm surge flooding
Read Updates on Tropical Storm Helene
Update: September 25, 2024
Is there a hurricane coming to Florida right now? Yes. Hurricane Helene, the eighth named storm of the hurricane season, is currently tracking towards Apalachee Bay in Florida’s Big Bend region. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Advisory #9, Hurricane Helene will make landfall as a Category 3 storm on the evening of Thursday, Sep. 26. Currently, the NHC forecast says there will be a landfall over western Apalachee Bay before the storm continues north through Tallahassee, Florida (Figure 1) and eventually Atlanta, Georgia.
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The NHC forecast shows maximum sustained wind speeds greater than 125 mph prior to landfall with much higher gusts possible.
Risk Quantification and Engineering (RQE®) and Navigate™ model users can download pre-landfall hazard-based proxy events from the Client Resource Center (CRC). The Big Bend region of Florida, where winds are forecast to be the most extreme, is sparsely populated relative to the western coast of the peninsula or the panhandle, which should limit insured losses. However, NHC forecast shows that Helene will be quite strong and move forward quickly at landfall. This opens the possibility of hurricane-force winds affecting property much further inland. Currently, a hurricane watch extends from the coastline inland into southern Georgia.
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Along Florida Coast
Any landfalling hurricane along the Gulf Coast poses a significant risk of coastal flooding, or storm surge, which can threaten life and property. The degree of storm surge inundation depends on several factors, including the storm’s width, speed, intensity (e.g., wind speed), as well as the current tidal period (high or low tide) at the time of impact. CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ estimated that nearly 25,000 residential properties with a combined reconstruction cost value (RCV) of $5.6 billion are at risk to storm surge flooding (Table 1). This estimate assumes that Helene will make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane and keeps its current forecasted track.
| Tallahassee Metro Area | Homosassa Springs Metro Area | Total | |
| Number of Residential Homes | 7,073 | 17,587 | 24,660 |
| Total Reconstruction Cost Value (M) | $1,474.3 | $4,160.8 | $5,635.1 |
As of Wednesday, Sep. 25, the NHC estimated storm surge depths of 10 to 15 feet above ground surface from the western edge of Apalachee Bay to Chassahowitzka. Storm surge flood depths of 5 to 8 feet are possible in the Tampa Bay/St. Petersburgh area (Figure 2).
When Did the Last Hurricane Hit Florida’s Big Bend?
In the Big Bend of Florida, hurricanes are not uncommon. Several hurricanes over the past two years have made landfall along Florida’s Big Bend coastline. Earlier in 2024, Hurricane Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph.
In 2023, Hurricane Idalia underwent rapid intensification prior to making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane over Keaton Beach, Florida (Figure 3). CoreLogic estimated insured losses to residential and commercial properties from wind and storm surge flooding were less than $2 billion.
The NHC forecast shows that Hurricane Helene will make landfall at a similar strength to Idalia but hit the coastline further to the west. One factor that limited Hurricane Idalia’s final insured loss impact was the remoteness of the landfall location.
Helene’s track is forecast to be more westerly, which means that impacts in the state capital of Tallahassee are likely to be more significant than recent Big Bend landfalling hurricanes.
Future Hurricane Helene Updates
CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ will continue to watch Hurricane Helene. An update will be available the day after landfall on Friday, Sep. 27, 2024.
Contact: Please email [email protected] with questions about Hurricane Helene or any CoreLogic event response notifications. Please visit www.hazardhq.com for updates and information on catastrophes across the globe.
Update: September 24, 2024
Tropical Storm Helene, the eight named storm of the hurricane season, is currently tracking towards Apalachee Bay in Florida’s Big Bend region. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory #5, Tropical Storm Helene should intensify to hurricane strength and make landfall as a Category 3 storm on Thu, Sep. 26. Currently, the NHC forecast indicates a landfall over Apalachee Bay then continuing north, passing Tallahassee, FL to the east (Figure 1) and eventually Atlanta, GA as a tropical storm. The NHC forecast shows maximum sustained wind speeds greater than 115 mph prior to landfall with gusts much higher gusts. A hurricane watch extends inland from coastal Florida to the Georgia border.
The NHC forecast shows maximum sustained wind speeds greater than 115 mph prior to landfall with gusts much higher gusts. A hurricane watch extends inland from coastal Florida to the Georgia border.
Risk Quantification and Engineering (RQE®) and Navigate™ model users can download pre-landfall hazard-based proxy events from the Client Resource Center (CRC).
Future Helene Updates
CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ will continue to monitor Tropical Storm Helene. Another update will be provided on Wednesday, Sep. 25.
Contact: Please email [email protected] with questions about Tropical Storm Helene or any CoreLogic event response notifications. Please visit www.hazardhq.com for updates and information on catastrophes across the globe.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 Forms
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) started issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (PTC 9). The NHC and most models agree that this system will organize and strengthen to where it will be officially named Tropical Storm Helene.
As of 2 p.m. ET on Monday, Sep. 23, PTC 9 is currently in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The NHC expects the system to organize as it continues northwest towards the Yucatan Peninsula before turning north-northeast (Figure 1). The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle regions are currently in the center of the NHC Cone of Uncertainty. However, impacts in Tampa Bay and St. Petersburgh cannot be ruled out.
The speed at which PTC 9 organizes and becomes a tropical storm then hurricane in addition to interactions with land will dictate the system’s final strength and landfall location. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico are extremely high, providing fuel for the system to intensify. There are few environmental factors such as vertical wind shear over the eastern Gulf of Mexico to prevent intensification. Rapid intensification, an increase in maximum winds of 24 mph in a 24-hour period, is possible prior to landfall.
Hazards to Land
As of the 2 p.m. ET advisory on Monday, Sep. 23, the NHC forecasts heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Upwards of 12 inches of rain is possible locally. The NHC forecasts tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches in western Cuba and the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Future PTC 9/Helene Updates
CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ will continue to watch PTC 9/Helene. An update will be available on Tuesday, Sep. 24, 2024.
Contact: Please email [email protected] with questions about PTC9/Helene or any CoreLogic event response notifications. Please visit www.hazardhq.com for updates and information on catastrophes across the globe.
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