Three Things to Know About Hurricane Agatha

1. First official hurricane of the 2022 season is the earliest Category 2 storm to make landfall along Mexican Pacific Coast
   • Hurricane Agatha made landfall just west of Puerto Angel, Mexico along the Pacific Coast at 4:00 pm CT on Monday, May 30, 2022. This is the earliest Category 2 storm to make landfall along Mexico’s Pacific Coast. Hurricane Agatha’s formation is interesting as Pacific Basin hurricane activity is generally suppressed during a La Niña phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
   • June 1 marks the beginning of the 2022 Hurricane Season for the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins.
   • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) recorded maximum sustained winds of 105 mph near the eye of the storm. Wind speeds of 70 mph were recorded in Puerto Angel. The hurricane strength winds downed trees and ripped roofs from homes. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge was reported in several small, coastal beach-towns along the Pacific Coast such as Puerto Escondido, Puerto Angel and Huatulco. Many streets and highways were inaccessible throughout the duration of the storm.
2. Widespread flood-related hazards remain present as remnants of Agatha move toward Gulf of Mexico
   • Hurricane Agatha quickly weakened after landfall as it passed inland over the mountainous terrain of central Southern Mexico. Wind speeds dropped below hurricane strength, but rainfall-related hazards remained across the States of Oaxaca, Chiapas and Veracruz. These States received up to 20, 15 and 6 inches of rain, respectively. Flashfloods and mudslides have been reported in small mountain towns in these States.
   • The Governor of Oaxaca reported that overflowing rivers and mudslides are responsible for 11 deaths and 20 missing persons as of June 1.
3. Agatha’s remnants provide seed for future development in the Gulf of Mexico
   • The remnants of Hurricane Agatha have become a disorganized system of thunderstorms near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
   • The NHC currently estimates that there is a 90% chance this system could develop into a tropical depression over the next 48-hours as it moves northeast across southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
   • Whether or not the remnant of Agatha becomes the first named storm of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall to areas of South Florida and the Florida Keys by the end of the week.

Update June 3, 2022 | 5:00 pm ET

This update is based on the National Hurricane Center’s Intermediate Advisory 4A released at 2:00 pm ET.

• The remnants of Hurricane Agatha, which made landfall along the Mexican Pacific Coast on Monday May 31, have redeveloped into a potential tropical cyclone (PTC 1). PTC 1 is currently moving northeast at 5 mph across the Gulf of Mexico and is anticipated to develop into a tropical storm (Tropical Storm Alex). This would be the first named storm of the 2022 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic.
• The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued tropical storm warnings for western Cuba, central and southern Florida (including the Florida Keys) and the Bahamas.
• Tropical storm force winds are anticipated to arrive in the Florida Keys and southern Florida overnight between midnight and Saturday 8 am. Winds are expected in the Bahamas shortly thereafter.

Figure 1: National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory for Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 (PTC 1) as of 2:00 pm ET. Tropical storm warnings are in place in western Cuba, southern and central Florida and the Bahamas.

• Even if winds do not reach hurricane-strength, there are several hazards associated with PTC 1 that have the potential to damage homes and businesses in central and southern Florida, the Florida Keys and the Bahamas. Heavy rainfall is expected throughout today. Some parts of southern Florida may see up to 10 inches of rain over the next 2 days. There is a moderate risk of flash floods and urban flooding through Saturday morning. Flooded homes and inaccessible streets are possible. There is the potential for storm surge flooding along the coast. 1-3 ft of coastal flooding is expected in southwestern Florida and the Florida Keys if surge coincides with high tide.

Figure 2: Potential rainfall depths over southern Florida. Some areas may see as much as 10 inches.

CoreLogic will continue to monitor PTC 1 throughout the weekend and into next week.