Southwestern US Counties Rank Highest in CoreLogic’s “Safest Places to Live” Study Forecasting the Next 30 Years of Natural Disasters

CoreLogic Climate Risk Analytics solution finds counties in New Mexico, Colorado and Utah top the list for the lowest exposure to perils 

IRVINE, Calif., March 23, 2023—CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, has announced the results of its “Safest Place to Live” study which details the least risky places to live in the U.S. from a natural hazard perspective. While severe convective storms and flooding pose risk to most homes in the U.S., McKinley County, New Mexico, emerged as the least-risky county to live due to its lack of hurricane and earthquake risk. Additionally, five counties in Colorado rank in the top 10 for lowest-risk areas for natural catastrophes.

CoreLogic deployed its Climate Risk Analytics: Composite Risk Score (CRA Composite Risk Score) solution to identify counties that are currently at low risk and stress tests natural disaster risks over the next 30 years across various future climate scenarios. The climate scenarios include a base climate where conditions do not change and a progressively worsening climate noted as “Scenario 8.5.”  RCP 8.5 is one of a suite of scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) that describe several potential future scenarios. The RCP 8.5 climate change results discussed here represent a projection of climate-related risks to residential properties assuming that C02 emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century.

CoreLogic analyzed wildfire, inland flood, severe convective storm, winter storm, earthquake and hurricane perils and applied its analytics capabilities to its extensive property datasets to provide deep insights into natural hazards, climate risks and the resulting impacts on the property landscape. As a result, the top 10 counties safest from natural disaster are:

1. McKinley, New Mexico
2. Duchesne, Utah
3. Conejos, Colorado
4. Emery, Utah
5. Summit, Colorado
6. Pondera, Montana
7. Saguache, Colorado
8. Uintah, Utah
9. Mesa, Colorado
10. San Miguel, Colorado

In examining a progressively worsening climate, Scenario 8.5, the safest counties in 2050 become:

1. McKinley, New Mexico
2. Conejos, Colorado
3. Summit, Colorado
4. Duchesne, Utah
5. Saguache, Colorado
6. Spokane, Washington
7. Emery, Utah
8. Eagle, Colorado
9. San Juan, Colorado
10. Chaffee, Colorado

About the study:

This analysis considers the impactful environmental risks to 154 million properties across the U.S. and is built on CoreLogic’s comprehensive data that details the physical characteristics of those homes, including construction year, first-floor height, number of stories and square footage. Although historic events provide some indication of where natural hazard risks may be high, evolving climate change necessitates comprehensive, forward-looking data to clearly identify where such risks are the lowest. The county-level CRA Composite Risk Scores were used for this study. These scores represent the reconstruction cost value-weighted Composite Risk Scores for the single-family residences within each county. More insights can be found here.

Source: CoreLogic

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About CoreLogic

CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit stage.corelogic.com.

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