Exploring the increasing risk of wildfires for properties in the U.S.
Wildfires around the world continue to threaten lives and properties, and the U.S. is no exception.
Like all hazards, wildfire activity is cyclical in a non-uniform pattern. In a year such as 2023, where an El Niño weather pattern brought increased moisture to the West and South, the U.S. experienced a 25-year low in total area burned. Reports showed 2,693,910 acres or 4,209 square miles burned that year from wildfires. This contrasts with 2022, when nearly triple that area burned, with fires touching 7,577,183 acres or 11,839 square miles, which is about twice the size of Connecticut.
While an accurate prediction for the 2024 wildfire season is not possible, we do know that past years are not reliable predictors of the future.
In fact, only four months into 2024 and already 1.75 million acres have burned in the U.S. This is primarily due to the largest fire recorded in Texas history, which scorched over 1 million acres.
When it comes to predicting wildfire risk, the only certainty is that while the number of fires per year is in decline, the increasing size and intensity of those fires is creating more property damage than ever before.
The chart below reveals that the average fire size has tripled over the past 30 years.
Understand Wildfire Risk
2023 Wildfire Risk Report
The Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Challenge
Wildfires commonly occur in transitional areas between dense development and wildlands. In the U.S., this intersection is home to approximately 45 million residences, and that number continues to grow annually.
“While the number of fires per year is in decline, the increasing size and intensity of those fires is creating more property damage than ever before.”
Tom Jeffery, Ph.D.
The term “wildlands” refers to areas that are large, open expanses containing natural vegetation. These areas are not necessarily remote locations. In fact, there are large expanses of natural vegetation near cities, specifically where suburban developments are pushing outward from urban areas. This transitional space is known as the Wildland-Urban Interface or WUI.
Wildlands are the source of most wildfire ignitions. Uninterrupted vegetation provides fuel to feed a fire, support its expansion, and increase its intensity. The WUI, due to its proximity to wildland areas, is often in the path of these large, intense fires and their consequences.
What Are the Top 15 Metro Areas for Wildfire Exposure?
At CoreLogic, we perform an annual analysis of the wildfire hazard by calculating the residential exposure to higher categories of wildfire risk and the reconstruction cost of those properties. Figure 2 shows the 2024 top 15 core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) in the U.S. for wildfire exposure. Notice all the metro areas on this list are in the West.
The wildfire risk map in Figure 2 is accompanied by a count of properties within each CBSA that are categorized as “High” or “Extreme” wildfire risk as well the corresponding Reconstruction Cost Value (RCV) of those homes. The rank order is based on the RCV.
Read More About Wildfire Risk
A Growing Need for Housing Puts Pressure on Safe Development
Unsurprisingly, 12 of these risky CBSAs also appeared on the list of high-extreme wildfire risk in 2019. The top four CBSA’s on the list in 2019 and 2024 are the same. However, the number of homes at risk and the reconstruction cost value to replace them is markedly higher.
| Metro Area | Rank | Total Homes at High-Extreme Risk | Total RCV Amount in Billions | ||
| 2019 | 2024 | 2019 | 2024 | ||
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | 1 | 121,589 | 185,763 | $71.00 | $143.24 |
| Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | 2 | 108,787 | 166,372 | $40.94 | $86.65 |
| San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA | 3 | 75,096 | 123,060 | $35.81 | $75.57 |
| Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA | 4 | 68,056 | 91,475 | $27.50 | $53.17 |
Also of concern is the fact that many of the high-extreme wildfire risk areas are in states that lead the nation in housing shortages. This likely means many homes will be built in the WUI, raising risks for properties and people alike.
The result is that the need for wildfire education, thoughtful urban planning and development, and wildfire insurance coverage that supports risk mitigation has never been greater.
A Closer Look at Colorado Wildfire Risk
If we take a closer look at the Colorado Springs, Colorado metro area, which ranks No. 10 on our list, there are nearly 40,000 homes with an elevated risk of wildfire damage due to their proximity to wildland terrain typical of a potentially destructive wildfire.
Of course, not all those homes are under threat from a single fire. But if we total the reconstruction cost value for the entirety of these higher-risk homes, the potential sum is more than $17.3 billion.
This area of Colorado has already experienced several historic wildfires. In fact, the Colorado Springs region has seen some of the worst fires in state history.
- The Hayman Fire in 2002 occurred about 20 miles northwest of Colorado Springs and was the largest in the state’s history until 2020.
- The 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire was the most destructive blaze at the time when it burned into the western side of the WUI, destroying 346 homes in the Colorado Springs area.
- In 2013, the Black Forest Fire destroyed 511 homes in the WUI north of Colorado Springs, becoming the most destructive fire until 2021 when the Marshall Fire surpassed it.
Elevated Wildfire Risk Exists Outside the WUI
Even when the division between high-risk areas and development is clearly defined, embers blown from burning vegetation onto and into homes can stretch a fire’s threat farther into the urban zone. Embers are responsible for an estimated 90% of home ignitions caused by wildfire. There have been instances of embers igniting residences up to a half mile or more from an actual fire.
While 2023 was a relatively quiet wildfire year in terms of acres burned, we can never assume low levels of wildfire activity guarantee minimal destruction.
100%
Of metro areas with the highest wildfire risk are in the West of the U.S.
At a broad scale, the wet fall and winter of 2022 coupled with heavy snowpack in the West curtailed fires in the spring and early summer of 2023. Then in early 2023, high levels of precipitation in California, Arizona, and other wildfire-prone states resulted in a minimal availability of dry fuel, which severely reduced opportunities for wildfire ignitions.
However, on a local scale, even small wildfires, like the ones that occurred in Hawaii last year, can create a tremendous amount of damage and loss of life.
But the elements last year that contributed to the minimal amount of property damage nationally will not provide a respite for long. As the influence of El Niño subsides and more normal precipitation patterns return, we will see more typical wildfire patterns that may be exacerbated by the increased vegetation growth from the last couple of years.
The million-acre Smokehouse Creek Fire that crossed from Texas into Oklahoma in February 2024 may indicate that 2024 will see increased wildfire activity and property losses.
Furthermore, the metro areas listed above are not the only locations where the wildfire threat is elevated. Communities of all sizes can be susceptible to wildfires, and it is important for homeowners to know their risk and their recourse in the event of a wildfire.
Paying attention to local and regional information regarding questions like, “does homeowners insurance cover wildfires” and tracking wildland fire activity with the National Incident Management Situation Report (IMSR national sit report) provides opportunities to prepare for and react when a wildfire occurs. And preparation benefits everyone.
Understand Wildfire Risk in Your Portfolio
2023 Wildfire Risk Report
The CoreLogic statements and information in this blog post may not be reproduced or used in any form without express written permission. While all the CoreLogic statements and information are believed to be accurate, CoreLogic makes no representation or warranty as to the completeness or accuracy of the statements and information and assumes no responsibility whatsoever for the information and statements or any reliance thereon. CoreLogic® and Marshall & Swift® are the registered trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.
